Cast, wait, nothing. Cast again, and a fish is on the line in two seconds. The difference is almost never luck. The game checks three things on every tick, and if any of them fails, the catch timer does not advance at all.
What has to be true before a fish bites
Your bait has to be underwater, and not just barely. The game only considers a bait that has sunk below a fixed depth line. A bait bobbing at the surface, or resting on the boat, is ignored completely.
Second, the bait has to soak. Each bait carries its own bite window, and the game rolls a
fresh number inside that window every time the bait enters the water. A 
Scientific LureScientific LureCosts$500Bite timer0.75–1.5sCatches5 creatures
draws between 0.75 and 1.5 seconds. The 
Crab-Fishing Rod with no baitCrab-Fishing Rod with no baitCostsFreeBite timer1–4sCatches2 creatures can take
up to four. You are not waiting for a fixed time, which is why two casts with the same lure
can feel so different.
Third, some baits only count that soak time while the bait is moving. If a bait needs reeling, the timer freezes whenever the bait sits still. Drop it in and walk away and you will wait forever.
The short version Sink the bait, keep it moving if the bait asks for it, and give it the second or two it needs. Everything else is the table roll.
Which baits need you to keep reeling
Most of them. The exceptions are the ones aimed at things that crawl rather than swim.
| Bait | Price | Sold on | Bite timer | Used up | Average catch | Profit per catch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crab-Fishing Rod with no bait | Free | Rod default | 1s–4s | 0% | $4 | $4 |
| Hot Dog | $1 | Every island | 1s–3s | 40% | $7 | $7 |
| Empty Beer Can | Quest reward | Quest, island 1 | 2s–4s | 100% | $10,000 | $10,000 |
| Beginner Lure | $3 | Island 2+ | 1s–3s | 35% | $13 | $12 |
| Standard Lure | $15 | Island 3+ | 1s–2.5s | 30% | $64 | $60 |
| Scientific Lure | $500 | Island 5+ | 0.75s–1.5s | 20% | $1,528 | $1,428 |
Average catch is the mean sell value of the bait's own table. Profit subtracts the share of the bait price you lose per catch; a quest reward costs nothing, so its profit is the catch. Both figures are for an average weight roll, before cooking.
The Crab-Fishing Rod with no baitCrab-Fishing Rod with no baitCostsFreeBite timer1–4sCatches2 creatures, 
Hot DogHot DogCosts$1Bite timer1–3sCatches2 creatures and
Empty Beer CanEmpty Beer CanCostsQuest rewardBite timer2–4sCatchesSpider Crab all bite while sitting still. That is deliberate: they
target crustaceans, and you are meant to drop them and wait rather than work the line. Every
lure in the purchasable line needs movement.
What decides which fish you get
Once the timer clears, the game picks from that bait’s own table. Each entry has a weight, the weights are added up, and one point in that range is chosen at random. Nothing about your position, the time of day, or how long you waited changes the odds. A bait’s table is the whole story.
Here is the 
Beginner LureBeginner LureCosts$3Bite timer1–3sCatches9 creatures table in full:
| Catch | Chance | Average casts | Sells for |
|---|---|---|---|
 Cod | 17.5% | 6 | $10 |
 Pike | 17.5% | 6 | $12 |
 Piranha | 17.5% | 6 | $4 |
 Salmon | 12.3% | 8 | $14 |
 Goby | 8.8% | 11 | $12 |
 Perch | 8.8% | 11 | $18 |
 Triggerfish | 8.8% | 11 | $18 |
 Goldfish | 7% | 14 | $24 |
 SunfishMini-boss | 1.8% | 57 | $50 |
The SunfishSunfishSells for$50Health1,500Weight21 kg – 147 kg at the bottom of that table is the reason people cast
the Beginner Lure long after they can afford better. It is a mini-boss sitting on a 1.75%
slot, and the average casts column is the honest answer to how long that takes.
The one case where the table lies to you
Bosses are capped at one at a time. If a boss is already alive somewhere in the world and you hook its slot again, the game quietly hands you the fallback catch instead.
In practice this only bites you when a friend has a boss on the line and you are fishing the same table. Deal with the boss that is already out, then go back to the slot you wanted.
Why the same lure feels better on some casts
Nothing carries over between casts. The soak timer is redrawn every time. On the 
Professional LureProfessional LureCosts$50Bite timer1–2sCatches12 creatures that
is one to two seconds, so the spread is small. On slower baits it is wide enough to notice.
The table roll is independent too, so ten casts in a row can all land on the same common fish. That is not a streak, and there is no pity counter quietly improving your odds.
Every non-boss catch rolls separately for a drip variant at a flat 10%, which is high enough that most sessions produce a few.
Why your bait keeps disappearing
Every bait carries its own chance of being used up. It is rolled separately from the catch, so a good fish and a lost lure are unrelated events that happen to land at the same moment.
| Bait | Price | Lost per catch | Catches before it goes | Bite timer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crab-Fishing Rod with no bait | Free | 0% | Never lost | 1s–4s |
| Fishing Rod with no bait | Free | 0% | Never lost | 2s–3s |
| Scientific Lure | $500 | 20% | 5.0 | 0.75s–1.5s |
| Professional Lure | $50 | 25% | 4.0 | 1s–2s |
| Standard Lure | $15 | 30% | 3.3 | 1s–2.5s |
| Beginner Lure | $3 | 35% | 2.9 | 1s–3s |
| Hot Dog | $1 | 40% | 2.5 | 1s–3s |
| Fish Bucket | Quest reward | 100% | 1.0 | 2s–3s |
| Leech Bait | Quest reward | 100% | 1.0 | 1s–3s |
| Empty Beer Can | Quest reward | 100% | 1.0 | 2s–4s |
| Beginner Boss Lure | $40 | 100% | 1.0 | 1s–3s |
| Carrot | Quest reward | 100% | 1.0 | 1s–2.5s |
| Standard Boss Lure | $280 | 100% | 1.0 | 1s–2.5s |
| Coconut | $350 | 100% | 1.0 | 1s–2.5s |
| Professional Boss Lure | $1,200 | 100% | 1.0 | 1s–2s |
| Scientific Boss Lure | $5,800 | 100% | 1.0 | 0.75s–1.5s |
Three bands show up in that table. The rod’s own bait is never consumed, which is why you can fish forever with nothing equipped. The purchasable lures sit between 20% and 35%, falling as the lure gets more expensive. Everything aimed at a boss is consumed every single time.
The expensive lures are the safest
The loss chance goes down as the price goes up, which is the opposite of what most players expect.
The Beginner LureBeginner LureCosts$3Bite timer1–3sCatches9 creatures is lost on 35% of catches. The
Scientific LureScientific LureCosts$500Bite timer0.75–1.5sCatches5 creatures is lost on 20%. Combined with the higher value of what
it catches, that widens the gap between the tiers well beyond the sticker price.
What this means in practice A Beginner Lure lasts a little under three catches on average. A Scientific Lure lasts five. Buy in quantities that match, rather than buying one and hoping.
Boss baits are always consumed
Every boss lure and every quest bait has a 100% loss chance. There is no version of the fight where you keep the bait, and that is true whether or not you land the kill.
That matters most for the 
Beginner Boss LureBeginner Boss LureCosts$40Bite timer1–3sCatches2 creatures, which hooks one of two
mini-bosses at even odds. Wanting a specific one means budgeting for two purchases.
The other way to lose a catch
There is a separate rule that has nothing to do with bait loss.
Keep the line moving toward the boat and it never comes up.